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According to BIMCO estimates, a standard VLCC must earn around USD 25,000 per day to break even. The last time average VLCC earnings were above this level was at the end of December 2020. Earnings for Suezmax and Aframax tankers stood at USD 9,194 and USD 8,367 per day, respectively, on 3 September.
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Yesterday the US imposed a ban on imports of Russian Oil. Russian crude oil accounted for about 3% of total US crude oil imports last year.
Europe imports about one third of its oil from Russia.
With increased sanctions and prolonged uncertainty, Europe will source oil from elsewhere, such as West Africa, Americas and the Middle East.
Therefore, oil has to travel longer distances and more transportation work is good for the NAT vessels.
Some of the Russian oil may go to the East/Far East creating a strong ton-mile effect and improving the position for our ships further.
NAT now has 22 Suezmax tankers including 2 newbuildings.
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nordic-american-tankers-ltd-nyse-145100793.html
source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Baltic-Capesize-Index-BCI-composition-2006_tbl1_233541403
BAID chart – https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-dirty-tanker
Only real demand and real supply for the transport of crude oil on standard routes are included in the price. In contrast to the economic data, the BDTI data are not subject to any subsequent changes. Manipulation is not possible with the method of determining the index. The daily updates are done in real time.
In 2004, tanker freight rates increased due to high demand for oil. Supertankers in the 200,000 to 320,000 ton class earned their owners spot rates of up to $ 230,000 a day. [2] On 17 November 2004, the BDTI an all-time high of 3,194 points.
In 2008, the international financial crisis , which started in the US housing crisis in 2007, led to a global recession. Because of the lower demand, there was a sharp drop in the price of oil freight rates, especially from the end of the third quarter of 2008. On April 15, 2009, the index fell to an all-time low of 453 points. The loss since July 23, 2008 (2,347 points) is 80.7 percent.
source: https://second.wiki/wiki/baltic_dirty_tanker_index
source: https://twitter.com/Kayrros/status/1502310824462983168/photo/1